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Source segment

Target segment

1

CIO INSIGHTS

CIO INSIGHTS

2

How High Might Yields Go?

投资收益率会走多高?

3

Not Sky High, by Our Analysis

据我们分析,不会太高

4

As a sequel to last quarter’s “Reasons Not to Fear Fed Uncertainty and Rate Changes,” we are responding to “how high” concerns about rate changes.

作为对上季度“不必害怕美联储的不确定性和利率变化”的续集,我们正对收益率变化会有“多大”的关注做出反应。

5

Based on projected real yield and inflation levels, we think 4% represents  the high end of the 10-year Treasury yield’s “normalized” level for the next 12months.

根据预测的实际收益率和通胀率,我们认为 4% 代表未来 12 个月 10 年期国债收益率的高端。

6

We’ve already touched 3%.

我们已经触及 3%。

7

Investors who think inflation and yields will be higher than we’ve projected might want to consider short-duration inflation- protection products.

认为通胀率和收益率将高于我们预测的投资者,可能想考虑短期通胀保护产品。

8

After 30 years of declines to record lows, we believe a bond yield “normalization” process has begun.

经过 30 年的下迭达到到历史最低点以后,我们认为国债收益率“正常化”进程已经开始。

9

We think yields are eventually heading toward their historical averages, with assistance from the Federal Reserve (the Fed).

我们认为,在美联储的协助下,收益率将最终达到其历史平均值。

10

A Major Policy Shift, with Obstacles

重大的政策变化,存在障碍

11

Beginning in May, the Fed communicated what we see as a major shift in its policy stance.

自五月份起,美联储传达出了我们认为是其重大政策变化的信息。

12

It’s seeking to start tapering part of its aggressive monetary policy—the $85 billion in monthly bond purchases that represent the Fed’s quantitative easing (QE) program—as the economy shows signs of strengthening.

随着经济出现复苏迹象,美联储寻求开始逐步放松其雄心勃勃的货币政策的一部分--代表美联储量化宽松(QE)计划的每月 850 亿美元的债券购买。

13

QE was intended to boost the economy, but the resulting artificially low interest rates also trapped savers, retirees, and other income-oriented investors in a form of financial repression, and may have encouraged the formation of speculative bubbles in riskier assets.

QE 旨在促进经济发展,但是,由此产生的人为的低利率也以金融抑制的方式使储户、退休者和其他以收益为导向的投资者陷入困境,还可能助长了风险更大的资产投机性泡沫的形成。

14

Over time, we believe that higher yields are desirable, providing income to fixed income investors and helping to undo and prevent economic and financial imbalances.

随着时间的推移,我们认为更高的收益率是可取的,为固定收入的投资者提供收入并有助于消除和防止经济和金融的不平衡。

15

So, the Fed has engaged in taper talk as  it seeks to exit QE.

因此,美联储在寻求退出 QE 时开始了“逐步放松谈话”

16

However, we believe two obstacles have emerged:

不过,我们认为出现了两种障碍:

17

1) “taper talk” triggered market turmoil (the 10-year Treasury yield rose from 1.63% in May to3.00% in September), and 2) the economy appears weaker now than when the latest round of QE was started in 2012, softened in part by the sudden surge in yields.

1)“逐步放松谈话”引发了市场混乱(10 年期国债收益率从五月的 1.63% 提高到九月的 3.00%),2)与 2012 年最后一轮 QE 开始时相比,经济发展势头减弱,部分原因是由于收益率的突然飙升。

18

We believe the Fed now faces a conundrum—it is seeking to normalize yields at a time when the U.S. economy is still not normal.

我们认为,美联储遇到了一个难题――它在美国经济尚不正常时试图将收益率正常化。

19

We remain in a subpar recovery from the Great Recession.

我们仍处在低于标准的“大萧条”恢复期。

20

Unemployment is still too high.

失业率仍居高不下。

21

Inflation is low.

通胀率低。

22

The housing market has improved, but not to pre-2008 levels.

住房市场情况有好转,但仍未达到 2008 年前的水平。

23

How We Arrive at 4%

我们怎样达到 4%

24

In this environment, we believe 4% represents the high end of the 10-year Treasury yield’s “normalized” level for the next 12 months.

在这种环境下,我们认为,4% 代表了未来 12 个月 10 年期国债收益率“正常”水平的高端。

25

We arrive at 4% byevaluating real (minus inflation) yields and inflation, which are the two components of nominal Treasury yields.

我们通过评估实际(减去通胀)收益率和通胀率来达到 4%,这是名义国债收益率的两个组成部分。

26

Going back to 1925, real 10-year Treasury yields have averaged approximately2%.

上溯到 1925 年,实际的 10 年期国债收益率平均值约为 2%。

27

We view that as a “normal” level.

我们认为这是一个“正常“水平。

28

(Recently, they have been less than 0.50%).

(近来,收益率低于 0.50%)。

29

Meanwhile, we think it’s unlikely that inflation will significantly exceed  2% in the next 12 months.

同时,我们认为,未来 12 个月通胀率将不太可能大大超过 2%。

30

Adding thesecomponents (2% real yield + 2% inflation) gives us our 4% high end range limit for the coming year.

根据这些因素(2% 的实际收益率 +2% 的通胀率)我们预计明年的高端范围限制为 4%。

31

Rising to 4%, if it happens, would trigger short-term bond losses.

提高到 4%(如果这种情况发生)将引起短期债券损失。

32

However, we believe investors can prepare for higher yields by keeping their bond portfolio durations1 relatively short, choosingtheir sectors wisely, and holding their investments for at least the length of their portfolio durations so bonds have time to mature.

不过,我们认为,通过保持相对较短的债券投资组合续存期,合理选择其部门,至少在其投资组合续存期保持其投资以便让债券有时间成熟,投资者可以为更高的收益率做准备。

33

Also, investors who think inflation and yields will be higher than we’ve projected might want to consider inflation-protection products such as short-duration inflation- indexed bonds and/or portfolios that use these securities.

此外,认为通胀率和收益率将高于我们预测的投资者,可能想考虑短期通胀保护产品,如短期通胀指数债券和/或使用这些有价证券的投资组合。

34

G. David MacEwen Chief Investment Officer Fixed Income

G. David MacEwen, 首席投资官,固定收入

35

“We believe the Fed is seeking to normalize yields at a time when the U.S. economy is stillnot normal.”

“我们认为美联储在美国经济尚不正常时试图将收益率正常化。”

36

1 Duration is an important indicator of potential price volatility and interest rate risk in fixed income investments.

1续存期是固定收益投资中的潜在价格波动和利率风险的一个重要指标。

37

It  measures the price sensitivity of a fixed income investment   to changes in interest rates.

它反映固定收益投资对利率变化的价格敏感性。

38

The longer the duration, the more a fixed income investment’s price will change when interest rates change.

当利率变化时,续存期越长,固定收益投资价格的变化越大。

39

Duration also measures the impact of cash flows received from fixed income investments.

续存期还反映固定收益投资的现金流量的影响。

40

Fixed income investments that can potentially pay more to investors earlier in the holding period from higher yields, prepayments, and/  or calls typically have shorter durations than comparable- maturity investments that do not have these features.

可能在持有期从较高收益率、预付款项和/或调用向投资者更早支付更多收益的固定收益投资,与没有这些特点的相对成熟的投资相比,其续存期通常更短。

41

Generally, as interest rates rise, bond valueswill decline.

通常,随着利率的提高,债券值将下降。

42

The opposite is true when interest rates decline.

当利率下降时情况正好相反。

43

The opinions expressed are those of G. David MacEwen and are no guarantee of the future performance of any American Century Investments portfolio.

表达的意见是  G. David MacEwen 个人的观点,不能保证“美国世纪投资组合”任何未来的绩效

44

For educational use only.

仅供教学使用。

45

This information is not intended to serve as investment advice.

本信息不是用于投资建议。

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XXXXXX

Project Industry

Finace

Our Task

TEP (translation, edition, proofreading)

Language Pair

English (US) → Chinese (PRC)

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PDF

Skills Involved or Tools Used

Transee, DTP