“Addicted to consumption” Includes “Dependent consumption” & “Essential consumption”

“Addicted to consumption” Includes “Dependent consumption” & “Essential consumption”

------Supplement of <Investing in Top-Five Consumption Way>

Li Jian Some think that the fifth kind of my top-five consumption means tobacco, alcohol, coffee, tea and etc. Actually it means more.First, some drugs may also form “addicted to consumption” , besides “addicted to” means not only “dependent” but also “essential”, it includes some non-addictive drugs and a large amount of family commodities. Nicotine, alcohol and tea alkali cause addiction as well as many drugs. And these drugs may summed up in two kinds.One kind is narcotic analgesics, such as morphine, pethidine etc. They can cause pleasant sense or pleasure besides analgesics and it will turn into addiction within 1~2 weeks with continual use for usual dose. The other is hypnotic and anti-anxiety drugs, such as seconal, amytal and a variety of antipsychotic drugs (ataractics,meprobamate,librium, nitrazepam, estazolam, clonazepam, etc.)Since medical needs for long-term use of these drugs, the mental or psychological challenged people will not avoid becoming addicted neither.Now these drugs are not exclusive production of patent, if not, the stocks of numbered manufacturers must be lit up. Well it happens that consumers have dependency of many drugs known as normal, for medical needs or weakness of physical constitution. For example, when you have antihypertensive drugs one day, you’ll have them all your life; same as long-term injection of hypoglycemic agents insulin; some medicine taken out of the pockets of those with heart disease at some critical moments; …… aspirin is another example, many people rely on it to ease a headache, etc.The enterprises are good investment when they have the authority of exclusive production, excellent brands as well as significantly effective medicines. The distinct characteristic of “necessary consumption” is: they are standing commodity for the mass.Who has no Toilet water, Yunnanbaiyao, Band-Aid, Plasters, Menthocamphorate, Cold medicine in the drawer? Who has no variety of everyday cleaning products? Not little cosmetics in a lady’s handbag? Who has no shaver or small battery in the house? Who has no bank card? Who has no Xinhua Dictionary? Necessity, habit is another kind of addiction in consumption.It is an interesting subject to study on the change of modern essential consumer goods; And it's also an important subject for value investors to pick out the top brand from essential consumer goods. As mentioned by famous American investor Peter Lynch, wealth may be just beneath your nose. And what’s more, it's just not enough to select one type out of the industry.The best choice means that an industry has the following five at the same time: exclusive consumption, fast-moving consumption, mass consumption, luxury consumption and addicted to consumption. “Exclusive consumption” matters most, we must carry it out strictly as Mr Buffett said, “Nothing else can replace their position in consumers’ mind”.



李 剑 有些朋友认为我归纳的“五消”型投资的第五条“成瘾消费”所指的就是烟、酒、咖啡和茶等商品,实际上它的含义不仅仅是这些。首先,一些特殊药物也能够形成 “成瘾消费”,另外“成瘾消费”不仅包括“依赖性消费”,而且可以扩充到“必备性消费”范畴,它们在行业上则表现为一些非成瘾性药品和大量的家庭日用品. 不仅尼古丁、酒精、咖啡因、茶叶碱成瘾,很多药物也会成瘾。容易成瘾的药物,最常见的是两类。一类是麻醉镇痛药,如吗啡、杜冷丁等,这类药物除镇痛作用外,还可引起欣然感或愉快感,常用剂量连续使用1~2周后即可成瘾。另一类是催眠和抗焦虑药,如速可眠、阿米妥和各种安定类药物(安定、安宁、利眠宁、硝基安定、舒乐安定氯硝安定等)。精神疾病和心理障碍患者,由于医疗的需要往往服用此类药物,长期应用也会成瘾。现在这类药物都不属于独家生产的专利药,否则,它们生产商的股票一定是牛气冲天。 也有很多药物并不成瘾,但因治疗需要和体质的不同,消费者对它们产生了依赖性。比如降血压药一服就停不了,必须终身服用;降血糖药胰岛素也必须长期注射;心脏病患者一到紧急关头就从衣袋里掏出某种良药;……阿司匹林也是一例,很多人长期依赖它制止头痛;等等。独家生产并且品牌卓越、疗效显著的企业当然是我们好的投资对象。 “必备性消费”鲜明的特色在于:它们是老百姓的普遍常备日用品。谁家的抽屉里没有一点花露水、云南白药、创可贴、伤湿止痛膏、清凉油、感冒药?谁家常年没有各种各样的洗涤用品?哪个女士的手袋里没有一点化妆品?谁家没有刮胡刀和小电池?谁人没有几张银行卡?谁家没有一本新华字典?必备性、习惯性消费是一种特殊的成瘾。研究近现代必备消费品的变迁,是一门饶有兴致的学问;精选必备消费品中的王牌企业,是价值投资者的重要课题。诚如美国投资大师彼得林奇所说,宝藏可能就在你身边。 还要补充说明的是,行业选择只选一种类型是不够的。五种消费类型(消费独占、快速消费、大众消费、奢侈消费、成瘾消费)都具备的才是最好的行业。特别是第一条“消费独占”,要严格到如巴菲特先生所说,“它是消费者心目中认定为没有替代的商品”。

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